Tocchet Isn’t the Problem Yet. Refusing to Adapt Would Be.

The Flyers are 0-5-3 heading into Detroit tonight, and the loudest question in Philly is whether Rick Tocchet is the problem. My answer: not yet. But what he’s doing isn’t working, and the longer he keeps doing it, the more it becomes his problem.

I talked through this on HW Hockey this week. The Tocchet breakdown is the first 16 minutes of the show. Here’s the full version: what Tocchet built, what’s breaking, and why it’s time to adapt.

What he built

Give Tocchet his credit first. In year one he got the defense back to where Torts had it. The Flyers allowed 3.22 expected goals a game last season, 4th fewest in the NHL. That’s the same rank Tortorella’s group hit in 2023-24, and it carried a team to 98 points and the second round.

Year two has been a different story. Through seven games the Flyers are 28th at 3.76 expected goals against per game. The structure that was supposed to be the floor isn’t holding.

What I’m seeing

The guys getting the heavy minutes aren’t winning them. Tocchet leans on Tyson Foerster, Christian Dvorak, Sean Couturier and Owen Tippett. They’re playing 16:39 a night, and with them on the ice the Flyers are getting 32% of the expected goals. Matvei Michkov, Porter Martone and Denver Barkey play 14:02 a night and the Flyers get 40% with them out there.

Forty percent isn’t good either. But if the group you trust most is getting caved in, the trust isn’t being earned.

Then there are the lines. I counted every trio that played at least four minutes together in a game. The Flyers have used 24 different lines in seven games, and 21 of them were used once. The most time any line has spent together all season is 20:44, by Carl Grundstrom, Noel Acciari and Couturier.

Michkov’s most-used line has changed in six of seven games. He’s been on six different lines that cleared four minutes. When something did work, it didn’t last. At Ottawa, Dvorak, Tippett and Trevor Zegras won their shot attempts 6-3, and Barkey, Foerster and Michkov won theirs 6-1. Neither line was together in Boston two nights later.

As a coach, I get trying to spark something when you’re losing. But you can’t build chemistry in a blender. Players need to know who they’re playing with and what their job is.

Michkov: elite with it, average minutes

I don’t want to be the guy who says play Michkov 22 minutes and everything’s fixed. I could get behind last year’s minutes. He showed up out of shape, he was slow, and his D-zone game needed work. Breaking the puck out on the wing is still not his strength.

But this is a different player. He’s in shape and moving quicker, and once he has the puck in the offensive zone he’s one of the best in the league at what creates goals. Here’s where he ranks among NHL forwards, per InStat:

Top 15% at getting the puck to the slot and taking good shots. Dead average in minutes.

Top guys need a rhythm. A player like Michkov has to know he’s playing 17 to 20 minutes tonight, and that a mistake doesn’t send him to the end of the bench. Right now neither he nor Martone has that leash.

Tocchet and young skill: both sides

The “Tocchet ruins young players” take is too simple. Quinn Hughes won the Norris with 92 points under him in 2023-24. Brock Boeser scored 40 that year. Clayton Keller put up 65 as a rookie in Arizona, and Tocchet won the Jack Adams in Vancouver.

The other side is real too. Keller went 65, 47, 44 and 35 under Tocchet, then 63 and 86 the next two years without him. Elias Pettersson went 102 (Tocchet took over midseason), then 89, then 45 in 64 games. And Michkov went from 63 points as a rookie to third-line minutes in year two.

The pattern isn’t that he can’t coach skill. It’s that he’s slow to change when the structure isn’t fitting the player.

What I’d like to see

We’re at the point where Tocchet has to adapt. Here’s how I’d do it.

1. Spread the minutes. If you’re not winning playing Dvorak, Couturier, Foerster and Tippett 16 to 17 minutes a night, you might as well play the other guys more. What you’re doing isn’t working.
2. Put Michkov in spots to succeed. If that means offensive-zone and neutral-zone starts only, so be it. If he gets stuck out for a D-zone draw, change him, then put him right back out on the next offensive-zone or neutral-zone faceoff.
3. Build lines around the skill, then leave them alone. Michkov with Martone and Barkey, two guys who win the puck back for him. Give it a week.
4. Let the young guys play through a mistake. That’s how they find a rhythm, and it’s how you find out what you actually have.

Put players in a position to succeed and see what happens. It can’t be worse than 0-5-3.

What I’ll be watching in Detroit: Michkov’s ice time and where his shifts start, and whether any line is still together by the third period.

Let me know what you think @BroadStBreakout.

Sources and data notes

• Team and player stats: InStat, 2026-27 through Oct. 11 (7 games, before the Seattle game). On-ice expected goals include all situations.
• Line data: InStat game line exports, Sept. 30 to Oct. 11. A line counts if the trio played 4+ minutes together in a game.
• Michkov NHL ranks: InStat league data, per game, forwards with 4+ GP through Oct. 11. Passing ranks are out of 303 because InStat doesn’t track possession for five teams.
• Track record: regular-season totals via RotoWire (Keller, Pettersson).