Alex Bump’s AHL Game Isn’t Translating to the NHL Yet. The Film Shows Why.

Alex Bump is back in Lehigh Valley, and this won’t be the last we see of him. Last year he looked like an NHL player, and the tools are still there. But right now his AHL game isn’t translating to the NHL, and you can see it in one number before you even turn on the film.

Same player. Half the shots.

Here’s what’s going on

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In Lehigh Valley, Bump has 9 points in 6 games (8 goals, 1 assist) playing 18:56 a night. With the Flyers, he has 0 points in 8 games playing 13:21 a night.

The shot volume tells the story. He’s taking 29.1 shot attempts per 60 in the AHL and 15.7 per 60 in the NHL. His shots on goal drop from 14.8 per 60 to 8.4.

This is a common problem for young players, and it isn’t about skill. His player card has him in the 82nd percentile in carry-in entries and the 98th percentile in puck battles won through his 8 NHL games. He can win the puck and he can get it into the zone. The problem is what happens after that.

Time and space with the puck

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In the AHL, Bump takes the puck into the zone and pulls up to make a play. Defenders give him time to look up, pick a spot and decide. In his fully tracked game at Springfield on Oct. 17, he had 12 carry-in entries and 24 pass receptions. The offense ran through him.

In the NHL he hasn’t been able to do that. He’s not used to not having that time and space, and the film shows it four different ways:

• He gets closed off on the boards with no time or space.
• He tries to walk the defenseman and loses the puck right away.
• He’s too slow getting his shot off on the carry-in, and it’s shut down before he can shoot.
• He takes a shot from a spot that just isn’t what coaches are looking for.

The numbers match the film. 32% of his NHL shot attempts get blocked, compared to 18% in the AHL. The shooting lane closes before he releases.

His power play role

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This is the biggest gap. Bump has 20 power play shot attempts in 24:33 of AHL power play time. In the NHL, he has 2 in 11:40. That’s about 49 per 60 compared to about 10 per 60. He’s also getting a third of the power play time, 4:05 a night in Lehigh Valley and 1:28 with the Flyers.

In the AHL he plays the right flank as a one-timer and shooting threat. That’s his spot. With the Flyers, he’s either the net-front and goal-line guy, or a lefty on the left flank. He’s not nearly the same shooting threat from there. You’re also asking him to be more of a distributor, and that just isn’t his game.

Shot charts and finding soft ice

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Put the two shot charts side by side and the power play role shows up right on the ice. In the AHL his attempts come from the high slot and the right circle. In the NHL nearly everything is on the left side, out by the wall.

The last clip in the video is a full shift where you can see he has the right idea. He can make plays. But he needs to sprint to soft ice so he’s ready to shoot when the puck finds him. He has an NHL-level shot. He’s just too reliant on having time instead of capitalizing on the small windows when someone can find him. Right now he looks like a perimeter player who hasn’t figured out how to play off the puck in the NHL yet.

Here’s why that matters. Last season, 41.8% of NHL goals came from right on top of the crease and another 13.2% came from the slot. Only 2 of Bump’s 23 charted NHL attempts came from the low slot. 7 came from the left wall below the circle, an area where under 4% of goals are scored.

Bump is a volume shooter. He’s not going to beat guys with speed very often, and he shoots a ton. In the NCAA and the AHL he could get away with his shot locations. In the NHL it’s so hard to score on these goaltenders unless you have an incredibly deceptive and quick release. He hasn’t shown that at this level yet.

One more number for anyone who wants to push back. His expected goals per shot attempt is about the same at both levels (.052 in the AHL, .059 in the NHL). His spots didn’t get worse. The goalies got better and the time went away. InStat also had him at 1.65 expected goals in the NHL with nothing to show for it, so some of the zero is bad luck. The fixable parts are the volume and where he’s getting his shots.

What I’d like to see moving forward

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1. Get to the inner slot. Sprint to soft ice before the puck gets there so he’s ready to shoot.
2. Shoot faster. The shot is good enough. The release has to be quicker and harder to read.
3. Use him as a shooter on the power play. Put him on the right flank where he’s a one-timer threat, not net front or on the left side as a distributor.

Bump is going to get another shot this season. When he does, watch where he’s shooting from and how quickly he gets it off. That will tell you whether it’s starting to click.

Does he stick with the Flyers this year, or does he need more time in Lehigh Valley? Let me know on X @BroadStBreakout. You can find every NHL player card, including Bump’s, at broadstbreakout.com/players.

Stats via InStat, 2026-27 season through Nov. 4. Player card percentiles are through his 8 NHL games, which is a small sample. Goal location map is from the 2025-26 NHL season.