Edmonton Is Two Teams. Here’s How the Flyers Beat the Oilers Tonight.

Edmonton has outscored teams 26 to 7 with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin on the ice. The Flyers are not winning those minutes tonight. Nobody is. But that line cannot play all 60, and when it sits down the Oilers are a different team. That is where this game gets won.

I went through the InStat data and the film. Here is the pair I would go after, the line I would go after, the Oiler nobody talks about, and three keys for tonight.

The team cards say mismatch

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On paper this is not close. Edmonton is 10th in expected goals share and the Flyers are 26th. The Oilers power play is at 33%, 3rd in the league. The Flyers are at 15%.

Edmonton does have soft spots. They are 23rd in shot attempt share at 48%, so they get outshot most nights, and their penalty kill is 21st. The Flyers are not the better team. The question is which minutes they can win.

Edmonton is two teams

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With McDavid, Draisaitl and Podkolzin on the ice, Edmonton takes 62% of the shot attempts. You survive those shifts. Get pucks deep, change on time, and do not turn it over at their blue line. Edmonton has last change tonight, so the Flyers do not get to pick the matchup. That makes every other shift matter more.

The pair to attack: Murphy and Shea

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Connor Murphy and Ryan Shea are Edmonton’s most used pair. Together they are 6 and 13 in goals. Thirteen against is the most of any Oilers pair, and six of those came in the last five games. They get 39% of the shot attempts when they are out there.

Their player cards tell you why. Murphy is in the 3rd percentile among NHL defensemen in on-ice expected goals share. Shea is in the 8th percentile in puck security, with more than 20 puck losses per 60 minutes. So you forecheck them. Make Shea move it under pressure and finish your hits.

The line to attack: Formenton, Dickinson, Joseph

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Alex Formenton and Mathieu Joseph started the year with Owen Michaels, and that line bled chances. In 99 minutes together it got 31% of the shot attempts and was outscored 9 to 6. Edmonton saw it too. Michaels dropped to the fourth line and Jason Dickinson came in.

It has helped, but it has not fixed it. The new version is at 38% on the season and 41% over the last five games. To be fair, this line has not been scored on yet. But it spends its shifts defending, and the two guys who stayed are the reason. Formenton is in the 7th percentile among forwards in on-ice expected goals share. Joseph is in the 10th percentile in puck security.

The Oiler nobody talks about: Vasily Podkolzin

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Everybody knows 97 and 29. Podkolzin is the guy who makes that line go. His card has him in the 89th percentile overall. He wins 59% of his puck battles, which is the 95th percentile among NHL forwards, and he is in the 91st percentile in inner slot shots.

He is not a playmaker and he does not need to be. His job is to win the puck back, get it to two of the best players in the world, and go to the net. If he wins the wall, McDavid and Draisaitl never leave your zone.

The Flyers rush problem

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This one is on the Flyers. In the games InStat has tracked, they get a shot on 34% of their rushes. That is 30th in the NHL. The middle of the league is 47% and Edmonton is 5th at 51%. Two out of three times the Flyers get up ice, they come away with nothing.

In the two clips from the Columbus game, watch the support. Is anyone driving the middle, or is it one guy skating into three? A shot off the rush against this team is a chance. A turnover at their blue line is McDavid going the other way.

What I’d like to see tonight

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1. Win the other 40 minutes. When 97 and 29 sit down, go after Murphy, Shea and the Formenton line. Forecheck, finish your hits, and live in their end.
2. Stay out of the box. Their power play is 33% and the Flyers are shorthanded 3.7 times a game, 6th most in the league. Three penalties or fewer.
3. Turn rushes into shots. 34% is not good enough. Get it to the middle, get it on net, and make their goalie work.

Which of the three keys matters most tonight? Let me know in the comments.

Every card in this piece is on the site: Oilers team card, Flyers team card, Vasily Podkolzin, Connor Murphy and Ryan Shea.

Stats via InStat, 2026-27 season through Nov. 9. Line and pair numbers cover all situations. Rush numbers cover the five Flyers games InStat has tracked. Player percentiles are a small sample at this point in the season.