The Middle Got Better. The Puck Didn’t.

Three games, three losses. Carolina beat the Flyers 3-2 in overtime on Saturday, with Shayne Gostisbehere scoring on a 4-on-3 power play with 2:09 left. The Flyers are 0-1-2.

I know how that reads. But this one was different from the first two, and I want to show you why before everybody writes the season off.

What’s going on

The box score says Carolina outshot the Flyers 40 to 18. That’s bad. Through three games the Flyers have been outshot 122 to 62.

But look at where the shots came from. Expected goals were 2.52 to 2.25 per InStat. In the opener it was 5.1 to 2.1. In New Jersey it was 4.6 to 2.2. That gap went from about three goals to a quarter of a goal in one game.

The shot map tells the story. Carolina had 69 shot attempts. Fifty of them came from outside the slot. In the slot itself, it was 19 to 16. On opening night Pittsburgh had 18 shots from the inner slot to the Flyers’ 3. Saturday, Carolina got volume, but they got it from the outside.

That’s a structure fix, and it showed up fast. The D stopped holding the blue line and giving up the middle. They collapsed, took away the slot and made Carolina shoot through bodies. Carolina had 16 attempts blocked.

What I’m seeing

They can’t start with the puck. The Flyers won 24 of 63 faceoffs. That’s 38%. When you start without the puck that often, you spend your night chasing, and that’s where 40 shots come from. Rick Tocchet said it after the game: “Our execution is not good this year.”

The slot still cost them. Two of Carolina’s three goals came from the slot, and two came on the power play. Sebastian Aho scored 10 seconds into the game and again on the power play in the third. Gostisbehere ended it in overtime.

Breaking down the goals against

Goal 1: Sebastian Aho, 0:10 of the 1st

Ten seconds in. Watch Aho’s route off the draw. He goes straight to open ice.

Rasmus Ristolainen has the chance to finish his hit on the wall, and I want him to. But even when you’re finishing a hit, stick on puck comes first. If Risto touches that puck first, it never gets above the goal line.

Christian Dvorak is actually in a great position. Maybe he could have shoulder-checked and truly covered Aho, but he’s in a spot to pick this puck off. The problem is the puck hits him and goes right to Aho, who found the soft ice. That’s a tough bounce. The stick-on-puck habit is what keeps the bounce from ever happening.

Goal 3: Shayne Gostisbehere, OT power play, 2:09 left

Everyone’s already pointed this one out online, and it’s why Nick Seeler was so mad after. Watch Andrei Svechnikov go from the flank and rotate down to the net front. He takes Seeler out of the play with what looked like a light cross-check to the back. Then he sets up perfectly in Woll’s eyes. Woll never sees Ghost’s shot.

You can’t do much when that doesn’t get called. But it’s a good reminder of how much a net-front rotation does on a power play. That’s exactly what the Flyers’ power play isn’t doing.

The power play is 0 for 8. Four chances Saturday, including a 4-on-3 in overtime. Same issue I wrote about after the opener. Too much standing still.

Woll has been the best player on the team. 37 saves on 40 shots. Through two starts he’s at .929, 78 saves on 84 shots. I said start him Saturday, and he gave them a chance to win again. If Vladar doesn’t feel 100%, I’d stick with Woll again.

Jiricek’s debut

With Rasmus Ristolainen hurt, David Jiricek’s minutes matter more now. He blocked a shot with his left hand in the second, took one 37-second shift in the third and is being re-evaluated today. Tocchet said a call-up is on the table.

Jiricek played 12:22 in his season debut, and it was quiet in the best way.

• One recorded puck loss per InStat, the fewest of any Flyers defenseman.
• Six unblocked attempts against, also the fewest.
• No errors that led to a goal. Four of the six Flyers D had one.
• Five puck battles in the offensive zone, the most of any Flyers D.

The one he won. Watch him go from the net front to the corner on Mark Jankowski. Instead of being soft with pressure, he goes right in. His stick is in a spot that makes Jankowski think he’s pressuring one way, so when Jankowski turns, Jiricek pins him on the boards. The puck goes around the net, and Seeler jumps into the next battle.

The more physical he can be below the goal line, the better off he’ll be. Hockey is a game of micro battles. The more of them you win in your own zone, the more you slow the other team down, and the less they can get set up in their offensive-zone system.

His skating speed is still his biggest issue. He goes back on a loose puck with time. He does a great job shoulder-checking to see where his help is, and he finds Noel Acciari on the wing. What he misjudges is the forechecker’s speed coming right at him. He has two options there: fire it around to Acciari right away, or feel the pressure and spin off it the other way. Instead he tries to wheel the net and make a direct pass. That’s not a bad play on its own, but he’s not the quickest skater, so the forechecker is all over him and Acciari gets covered because he took so long to make a decision. What should be an easy recovery and breakout turns into Carolina possession.

InStat didn’t count that one as a puck loss for him, but it’s the play he’d want back.

Here’s why that matters for his development, not just for Monday. York and Drysdale are both under six-foot-one and neither plays a physical game. Drysdale is the puck mover. York is also a puck mover, and he’s very underrated at blocking shots. What this blue line doesn’t have, with Risto out, is size and a heavy shot on the right side.

Jiricek is 6’3. His average shot speed last season was 72.3 mph per NHL EDGE, the hardest on this blue line. He engages in more puck battles than any Flyers D.

What he has to work on is winning those battles. He won 52% of them last season, which sits in the bottom quarter of the league. That’s the development piece. He already wins the size matchup. Now he has to come out with the puck. You only learn that by playing real minutes against NHL forwards, not in the press box.

Martone watch

Last week I said I’d keep an eye on Porter Martone. Through three games, he still doesn’t have a shot attempt, per InStat. He played 10:27 Saturday on a line with Noah Cates and Tyson Foerster.

I’m not panicking. But it’s the thing I’m watching on this trip.

What I want to see in Tampa

• Win draws, then get it deep. Starting with the puck is the easiest way to stop giving up 40 shots.
• Keep the slot closed. That part looked better Saturday. Do it again for 60 minutes.
• Real minutes for Jiricek. Let him play through his mistakes.

They’re getting closer. Now they have to win a game. At least they came out of the last two with points.

Let me know what you saw @BroadStBreakout.